- In the Know
- Posts
- Internal vs External Conviction
Internal vs External Conviction
Why some investors reach conviction in a day, while others take months.

Follow along & see what’s new in Consumer, Creators & Community.
🔮Consumer: Where are all the cowboys?
When fundraising its important to know, many venture investors seek external validation from other funds to reach personal conviction. Very few will reach conviction quickly & on their own & even fewer will lead.

Cowboys: Reaching conviction fast, and independently of fomo. Will decide to invest early, often intuition based.
Insight to watch: Reid Hoffman told Airbnb founders two mins into the pitch: “Look, I’m going to make you an offer to invest. Let’s make the rest of the session a working session” but only after positive founder referrals.
Fund to watch: Thrive Capital leads Databricks $10B raise at a $62B evaluation and OpenAi’s $6.6B raise at a whopping $157B eval.
Lemmings: Following on only after other investors reach conviction. Will pass on deals & follow others, often herd mentality based.
Insight to watch: According to Carta, 27% of firms led at least one round in the past year & fewer then 15% did so in early stage at Seed & Series A.
Fund to watch: Both Attack Capital & WeFunders Orange Fund are democratize access to the annual YC batch by indexing the top 10-25%.
Synthesis: “Find a cowboy with conviction”
🤳🏼Creators: Equity > cash: the athlete/creator arc

The athlete arc: Athlete contracts are reaching an all time high & athletes want somewhere to put their powder & venture is.. sexy.
Insight to watch: 18 year old Cooper Flagg with a $4.8M NIL Evaluation.
Fund to watch: Liquid2 Ventures: 30+ Unicorns (Joe Montana)
Startup to watch: Fanstake NIL player funding platform ($6.15M raise)
The creator arc: Top creators are making millions charging anywhere from $100-$10k per post depending on the platform.
Insight to watch: Amazon doubles down on $100M investment in Mr. Beast.
Fund to watch: Night Ventures - Mr Beast’s $20M early stage fund.
Startup to watch: Crowdsurf - Investing in individuals, not just companies.
Synthesis: “Buy distribution with equity not cash”
🗓️ Community: IRL [5.19-25th] x NYC Tech Week

Chicago
| New York Tech Week
|
🖼️Art Piece of the Week:
![]() Untitled (Dream of Venus) formerly Visions of Eternity | Dream of Venus (‘39) Salvador DalíThe Lore: Dalí believed dreams were the purest access to the subconscious. He would intentionally nap in a chair with a spoon in his hand, waking when it dropped to capture surreal images from that fleeting dream moment and paint them immediately. At times his method was referred as “paranoiac-critical method”. Where to see it: On display at the The Art Institute of Chicago |
“At the age of six I wanted to be a cook. At seven I wanted to be Napoleon. And my ambition has been growing ever since.”
- Salvador Dalí
Let’s meet IRL?
Gratefully,
Reply